Quick answer, as of October 2026
Pensacola Association of Realtors members closed 843 sales in September 2026, compared with 797 in September 2025. The September 2026 median sale price in the Pensacola Association of Realtors report was $319,900, down from $324,900 a year earlier. Freddie Mac reported a 7.32 percent national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40 percent a week earlier and up from 6.19 percent a year earlier. That rate is a survey average, not a VA quote.
Gregg Costin, Realtor, Levin Rinke Realty
On this page11 sections
Key takeaways
- The Pensacola Association of Realtors September 2026 report shows 843 closed sales and a $319,900 median, covering Escambia and Santa Rosa county ZIPs, not Okaloosa County.
- Monthly medians held at $325,000 in July and August before easing to $319,900 in September; the association publishes no quarterly median, and this report does not invent one.
- Freddie Mac's national 30-year average was 7.32 percent on October 22, 2026, above the 6.43 to 7.03 percent weekly range during the quarter, and it is not a VA quote.
- On the September median with 5 percent down at 7.32 percent, principal and interest alone is about $2,088 a month: roughly $225 above FL064 E-5 BAH with dependents and $345 below the FL056 rate, before taxes and insurance.
- Pending sales fell 27.6 percent from August while inventory sat below last year, which argues for careful negotiation on a specific house rather than waiting for a flood of choice.
Orders to NAS Pensacola, Corry Station, Whiting Field, Eglin, Hurlburt or Duke Field put one question ahead of the house hunt: buy when you land, or rent first and watch the Pensacola housing market for a year? This report answers it with the completed third-quarter record, July through September 2026, from the local Realtor association, the current national rate survey and the 2026 housing allowance for both housing areas.
Read the scope note before the numbers. The local figures come from the Pensacola Association of Realtors monthly reports, which cover Escambia and Santa Rosa county ZIP codes, including Navarre and Milton. They are an association market report rather than an official metro-area statistic, and they do not cover Okaloosa or Walton counties.
What did the Pensacola housing market do in the third quarter of 2026?
Pensacola Association of Realtors members closed 843 sales in September 2026, compared with 797 in September 2025. The September 2026 median sale price in the Pensacola Association of Realtors report was $319,900, down from $324,900 a year earlier. Those figures cover the association's MLS market in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, not Okaloosa County.
Prices did not move much month to month. Monthly medians in the same reports were $325,000 in July, $325,000 in August and $319,900 in September 2026. Those are three separate monthly medians. The association publishes no quarterly median, so this report does not average them into one.
| Month | 2026 median | 2025 median |
|---|---|---|
| July | $325,000 | $330,000 |
| August | $325,000 | $324,900 |
| September | $319,900 | $324,900 |
Sales volume for the year is running ahead of 2025. Through September, PAR members had closed 7,398 sales in 2026, 4.7 percent more than in the same period of 2025. The three monthly reports do not support a clean quarter against quarter sales comparison, so none is published here.
Supply tightened over the year. Single-family inventory in the PAR report, counting homes already under contingent contracts, was 3,114 at the end of September 2026, down from 3,599 a year earlier. New single-family listings rose to 938 in September 2026 from 913 a year earlier, while new condo listings fell to 69 from 86.
Buyer activity cooled late in the quarter. New pending sales in September 2026 ran 8.9 percent below September 2025 and 27.6 percent below August. A drop in pendings during the month rates jumped is consistent with buyers pausing, but one month of data does not establish a trend, and this report does not forecast one.
| Measure | September 2026 | September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales, residential plus condo | 843 | 797 |
| Median sale price | $319,900 | $324,900 |
| New single-family listings | 938 | 913 |
| New condo listings | 69 | 86 |
| Single-family inventory, contingents included | 3,114 | 3,599 |
| New pending sales | 8.9 percent below September 2025; 27.6 percent below August 2026 | Base month for the first comparison |
Why this is not a quarterly median and not a metro figure
Florida Realtors posts its metro and county reports for members only, so this report uses the Pensacola Association of Realtors monthly reports for local figures. The association's median slide does not say whether condos are included, so this report does not describe the figure as single-family only.
Other published medians differ in source, month and method. The $333,450 figure that appears on this site's cash offer guide is a Redfin metro estimate for May 2026, a different month, data source and calculation. The gap between it and $319,900 is not a measured price decline, and this report does not treat it as one.
How does Florida as a whole compare?
The state moved the other way on price. Statewide, Florida Realtors reported a Q3 2026 single-family median of $420,000, up 2.4 percent, with 4.4 months of supply versus 5.1 a year earlier. That is context only. It says nothing about any Pensacola ZIP code, and the metro report that would is behind the member gate.
Florida condo and townhouse sales held a $295,000 statewide median in Q3 2026, with 7.7 months of supply. Condo supply is loose across the state. That matters if your plan is a Pensacola Beach or Perdido Key unit rather than a house, because the local report shows new condo listings falling while statewide condo supply sits above seven months.
Where are mortgage rates now, and what did they do during the quarter?
Freddie Mac reported a 7.32 percent national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40 percent a week earlier and up from 6.19 percent a year earlier. That survey average describes conventional borrowers with 20 percent down and strong credit, so it is not a VA quote and not a rate any lender has offered you.
Survey rates during the quarter were lower than the current reading. During the third quarter the weekly 30-year average climbed from 6.43 percent on July 2 to 7.03 percent on September 24. The same house at the same price costs more a month to finance at this week's survey average than at the July average.
The survey updates every Thursday, so the figure above goes stale within days. Check the current reading before any payment math, and read what moves mortgage rates on the civilian site for the general mechanics. The VA loan guide explains how a VA rate quote differs from this survey.
What does the September median cost against 2026 BAH?
Hypothetical example: on the $319,900 September median with 5 percent down, a $303,905 loan at 7.32 percent over 30 years costs about $2,088 a month in principal and interest, before taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. That is a labeled scenario, not a quote, an approval or an actual transaction.
Now the allowance side, from the official 2026 Defense Department rate archive. An E-5 with dependents stationed in the Pensacola housing area (FL064) receives $1,863 a month in 2026 BAH. An O-3 with dependents in FL064 receives $2,271 a month. An E-5 with dependents assigned to Eglin, Hurlburt or Duke Field (FL056) receives $2,433 a month. An O-3 with dependents in FL056 receives $3,399 a month.
| Pay grade, with dependents | FL064 Pensacola BAH | FL056 Eglin, Hurlburt and Duke Field BAH | Hypothetical principal and interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| E-5 | $1,863 | $2,433 | about $2,088 |
| O-3 | $2,271 | $3,399 | about $2,088 |
That principal and interest alone runs about $225 a month more than the $1,863 FL064 allowance for an E-5 with dependents, before taxes and insurance are added. The same hypothetical payment sits about $345 a month below the $2,433 FL056 allowance for an E-5 with dependents, again before taxes, insurance, HOA and maintenance.
Two limits apply to every row of that table.
- A BAH table is a housing allowance, not a loan approval and not a home price limit. Your actual entitlement is confirmed by your servicing finance office and shows on your LES.
- Base pay is deliberately absent. A lender underwrites your real income and debts, not your rank, so no approval is implied anywhere in this report.
The BAH rate tables and the BAH to mortgage guide carry the other grades and the full budget method.
Worked example, with every assumption listed
- Price: $319,900, the PAR September 2026 monthly median, used as a stand-in rather than any specific home.
- Down payment: 5 percent, so the loan is $303,905.
- Rate: 7.32 percent, the Freddie Mac national average of October 22, 2026. A VA borrower or a 5 percent down borrower may be priced differently.
- Term: 30 years, 360 payments, standard fixed-rate amortization.
- Result: about $2,088 a month in principal and interest.
- Excluded: property tax, homeowners and flood insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, any VA funding fee, utilities and maintenance.
Add the excluded items before you compare anything to your allowance. The BAH versus cost of owning guide works through taxes and insurance by ZIP code, and the mortgage calculators let you rerun the payment at the rate you are actually quoted.
Should you buy on arrival or rent first this winter?
For a member reporting to NAS Pensacola or Whiting Field on FL064, the September median at 7.32 percent is a stretch: an E-5 with dependents is about $225 short on principal and interest alone, before taxes and insurance, so that purchase leans on other household income. Inventory fell from 3,599 to 3,114 and pendings dropped 27.6 percent from August, so waiting is unlikely to bring a flood of choice but may leave stalled sellers open to terms. That is judgment, not a forecast.
Renting first is the lower-regret choice when any of these is true:
- The tour is three years or shorter, so selling costs arrive before much equity does.
- You have not seen the house, and the sight-unseen risk sits with you.
- The only homes inside your budget sit in a flood zone you have not priced for insurance.
The renting on BAH guide and the rent versus buy comparison by tour length work the other side of the ledger.
Buying on arrival makes more sense when the tour is long, the household budget on the LES carries the full payment with room for insurance and repairs, and you can accept selling into whatever market exists when the next orders arrive. The sight-unseen buying guide covers the case where you must decide before you land.
The downside case, and what would reverse the conclusion
Change one input at a time in the same hypothetical household. A home priced above the median raises the loan and every payment with it. A short tour means selling after two or three years, and selling costs plus a flat market can erase the equity a 5 percent down payment built. A rate that rises again before you lock adds to every month of a 30-year loan; a rate that falls makes the median cheaper to carry and strengthens the buy case.
Insurance is the quiet input. A house in a FEMA flood zone or in wind exposure near the water carries premiums the payment math above excludes entirely, and that one line item can change which column wins. Price the policy before the offer using the Florida home insurance guide and the flood zone guide.
The conclusion flips toward buying when all three of these hold, and back toward renting when any one is missing:
- Your LES carries the full payment with reserves, including taxes, insurance and repairs, not just principal and interest.
- The tour runs past three years, or you have a realistic plan to keep the home as a rental with vacancy, management and repairs budgeted.
- You can accept the exit, selling or renting into whatever market exists when the next orders arrive.
The sell or rent at PCS guide shows what that exit looks like.
Bring your orders, your LES and the address you are watching. The market figures above are area-wide; the decision is yours alone.
Want the numbers run on a specific house?
Gregg can pull closed comps, days on market and the insurance questions for one address and show how it compares with the September median before you write anything.
How hard should you negotiate this winter?
With somewhat more room than in August, on one reading of the September figures, but from fewer choices. Pending sales fell 27.6 percent from August and 8.9 percent from a year earlier, which suggests more sellers entered October without a contract, while inventory at 3,114 sits below last year's 3,599. That is a reading of two figures, not a measured count. Both facts come from the September PAR report. What any one seller will accept is not in any report.
- Pull the closed comps for the specific address from the last 90 days before you anchor on any median, because the median is an area figure, not a price for that house.
- Check days on market and price-cut history on the listing; a home listed in August that is still active after the September pending drop may be the one with room.
- Ask for seller-paid closing costs rather than only a lower price when cash is tight; the VA loan guide explains what a seller may pay.
- Price the insurance and flood policy before the offer, and write the inspection and appraisal contingencies you will actually use.
- Confirm the rate quote in writing on the day you sign, since the survey figure in this report is not your rate.
- Keep the walk-away number fixed to your LES budget, not to the allowance table.
Use the PCS home search to watch active listings by base, and the PCS guide for the timeline around your report date.
What should a Hurlburt or Eglin member take from a Pensacola report?
A member assigned to Hurlburt, Eglin or Duke Field looking at Navarre or Milton has closed-sale data here, because the PAR report covers Santa Rosa County ZIP codes, including 32566. The same member looking in Fort Walton Beach, Crestview or Niceville does not: no public primary source published third-quarter 2026 figures for Okaloosa County. The FL056 allowance of $2,433 clears the hypothetical $2,088 payment only on a Pensacola-area median, so price any Okaloosa address from closed comps before assuming the allowance covers it.
The allowance follows the duty station, not the house, as the Fort Walton Beach rental guide explains from the DoD rule, so a Hurlburt member buying in Navarre still draws FL056. The Crestview relocation guide, the Navarre community guide and the Milton community guide carry the town-level detail, and the Hurlburt base guide covers the gate side.
Sources and references
- Pensacola Association of Realtors, Market Snapshot, September 2026 (PDF)
- Pensacola Association of Realtors, Market Snapshot, August 2026 (PDF)
- Pensacola Association of Realtors, Market Snapshot, July 2026 (PDF)
- Pensacola Association of Realtors, Residential Market Reports index
- Florida Realtors, Q3 2026 Single-Family Quarterly Market Summary, Florida (PDF)
- Florida Realtors, Q3 2026 Townhouses and Condos Quarterly Market Summary, Florida (PDF)
- Florida Realtors, Florida Market Reports access page
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- Freddie Mac, PMMS weekly history (CSV)
- Defense Travel Management Office, 2026 BAH rates, all locations and pay grades (ASCII archive)
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a good time to buy a house in Pensacola?
It depends on your tour length and your LES, not on the median. The September 2026 PAR median was $319,900 and the national 30-year survey rate was 7.32 percent on October 22, which puts principal and interest on a 5 percent down purchase near $2,088 a month before taxes and insurance. A member whose budget carries that payment with reserves and who expects a long tour can buy; a member on a short tour or a tight budget often does better renting first.
Why does this report show a different Pensacola median than other sites?
Because source, month and method differ. The $319,900 figure is the Pensacola Association of Realtors September 2026 closed-sale median for Escambia and Santa Rosa county ZIP codes. A $333,450 figure that appears on two of this site's selling guides is a Redfin metro estimate for May 2026, built from a different data source and calculation. The two numbers are not the same measurement, so the difference between them is not a price drop.
Does the PAR median include condos?
The association's median slide does not say. The closed-sale count combines residential and condo sales, and separate slides track residential and condo inventory, but the median slide carries no property-type label. This report therefore describes it as the monthly median in the PAR report and does not call it a single-family median. If the property type matters to your decision, ask for the comps on the specific home rather than relying on the area figure.
What was the Q3 2026 median home price in Pensacola?
No public primary source publishes one. The Pensacola Association of Realtors issues monthly reports, and its medians were $325,000 in July, $325,000 in August and $319,900 in September 2026. Florida Realtors produces a quarterly metro report that would carry a single quarterly median, but it is available to members only. Averaging the three monthly figures would not produce a true quarterly median, so this report does not do it.
How much house does BAH cover in Pensacola at a 7.32 percent rate?
BAH is not a loan approval and not a home price limit, so this is a comparison, not a ceiling. Hypothetically, principal and interest on the $319,900 September median with 5 percent down at 7.32 percent is about $2,088 a month. The 2026 FL064 rate for an E-5 with dependents is $1,863, about $225 less; the FL056 rate of $2,433 is about $345 more. Taxes, insurance, HOA and maintenance come on top, and finance and your LES confirm your entitlement.
Does this report cover Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Niceville or Destin?
No. The Pensacola Association of Realtors reports cover Escambia and Santa Rosa county ZIP codes, which include Navarre and Milton but stop at the Okaloosa County line. No public primary source published third-quarter 2026 closed-sale figures for Okaloosa or Walton counties, and the Florida Realtors metro report for Crestview, Fort Walton Beach and Destin is members only. A member assigned to Eglin or Hurlburt should price an Okaloosa address from closed comps rather than from any figure in this report.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying near NAS Pensacola?
Nobody in this report knows where rates go next, and it makes no forecast. What the record shows is that the weekly national average rose from 6.43 percent on July 2 to 7.03 percent on September 24 and stood at 7.32 percent on October 22, 2026. Waiting is a bet that can win or lose. The sounder test is whether your LES carries the payment at the rate you are quoted today, with reserves, for the length of your tour.
Put this guide to work
Rerun the September median at the rate you are actually quoted and against your own LES before choosing between buying on arrival and renting first
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